Data migration - best laid plans

Is it possible to plan a data migration? I realise that this question may be verging on the heretical given the generation of project managers we have who have grown up on the Prince planning paradigm but I am increasingly of the opinion that the levels of detail and the work we put into managing plans on large programmes is a waste of effort.

There - I’ve finally said it in public. 

My reasoning behind this is twofold. Firstly there is the problem of complexity and secondly there is the issue of necessary off-plan activity that is essential but which plans do not capture.

Taking these in reverse sequence, it is clear, especially for data migration projects, that a lot of what we do comes under the heading of unplanned activity. How can this be? Well I always say that data migration planning is easy - we are asked to plan the move of data from undocumented and unknown systems, of unknown data quality, to an undefined target. No planning problems there then!

So how do we manage this?

Well, using PMDv2 we can have a period of landscape analysis which aims to map out the answers to the first half of the problem. We then have a slice of gap analysis and mapping that closes in on the second before we can drop into migration design and execution by which time we should be in a position of knowledge that allows us to plan down to the lowest level of detail.

However lay that on a time line and you see that those first two stages are going to consume 80 per cent of the elapsed time. So 80 per cent is either unplanned or we make a show of planning. This show of planning is like the early medieval maps of the world where whole continents were missing and of those that were present the interiors of Africa and the America’s were blank.

Of course in PDM we expend probably more than half our effort in the DQR process managing all the data quality and data preparation activities in a joint venture with our business colleagues. All of this is reactive to what we find in the source and what is required by the target. 

I realise that data migration is something of an oddity but on the bigger programme of which it is a part there is a mirror in the risks and issues management process and, of course, in the planning process itself none of which is to be seen on published plans.

Now let’s return to the question of whether a large programme is plannable or not even in theory. I have been on projects where the plans run into tens of thousands of lines and a dozen or more full time equivalents are employed to maintain them. Also recently I have started taking an interest in chaos theory. 

Under chaos theory it is demonstrable that in some cases a system that is governed by relatively simple linear equations which are sensitive to their starting values can have an outcome that is in principle unpredictable. Weather systems are the classic example of this. We can predict the weather 12 hours ahead with a degree of accuracy and our three day forecasts are quite good but beyond that the slightest change in starting values can have a huge impact on outcomes, so long range weather forecasts of even the most general kinds are just not reliable.

This of course has a parallel in our planning efforts. Plans are made of cascading activities that are quite simple linear equations with a limited number of starting values - start date, duration, effort, number of resources etc. (I am aware that Microsoft, in their desire to enhance the perceived value of their product, have added a load more to project but that only reinforces my argument).

The result of this is one of which we are all aware. You turn on auto-scheduling at your peril. Most of us know what the end date is, we bung in a load of activities then we go through the various views to level the plan. When that doesn’t work we go back and fiddle the values until we get the result we want - the one we intuitively know is right (or the ones our masters demand of us). Turn on auto-scheduling and the plan explodes going from 12 months to 36 months elapsed time in an instant.

As part of my summer reading I’m going to be taking away some stuff on chaos theory so for now I’ll leave this as an interesting parallel - I can’t say for certain if it is really applicable. But it is also true that once in flight any small change in one part of the leviathan plan can have huge impacts elsewhere. The butterfly flapping its wings indeed!

Now it could be argued that this is exactly what a robust planning activity should support. All those unforeseen connections that impact on the critical path should be exposed. And I might agree with that proposition except for a theoretical and a practical consideration.

Given the inherently chaotic nature of a huge plan is it possible, even in theory, to sensibly attempt to create and link all those lines with the correct weightings, durations, allocations etc? Just like the weather we can plan accurately a few days out but as to what happens in three months time? 

Is it even theoretically possible? And secondly the practical response of the programme management office whenever I cause havoc in the programme plan with some well intentioned adjustments is to a) ban me from going anywhere near the master plan ever again and b) to fiddle it back to a position that matches what the Programme Director wanted in the first place. So you see I don’t think even the most fundamentalist priests at the temple of MSP really believe they can allow the project to be managed by the plan.

I will return to this topic in my next blog when I’ll look at the alternatives to these behemoth plans but for now I will leave you with the observation that of the projects that I have visited which are really bombing the amount of planning is always inversely proportionate to the levels of success. Like desperate sailors in sinking ships baling furiously with leaky buckets, plans and re-plans flash about the project, sometimes to the extent of little else being done at a management level.

I think the planning is the effect of imminent failure not the cause but I’m not sure.

Look out for the next blog in this series where I will be writing about alternatives to a single monolithic plan.

And finally, as many of you will be aware, I have two white papers on the Experian website that look at how to use data migration projects to kick start your data management initiative.

I also have a webinar hosted by them on 3 September. I know some of my views have raised a level of disagreement, so why not join in and debate it with me real time.

jmorris@iergo.com

Comments (4)

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  • 1
    David Kay wrote on 7th Aug 2014

    I think part of the discussion depends upon what you think a programme plan should be.

    In my view it is not an accumulation of individual project plans, but a monitor and prediction of benefit realisation. As such it consists of a series of milestones reflecting project and change activity outputs that link into programme outcomes. It doesn't need to track each project activity.

    So to come back to planning for data migration, yes it is tricky and of course some activity durations will be guesses, but if kept at the right level with sufficient assurance and challenge to the techie "that will only take 5mins" estimate, it ought to be possible.

    PS. I never ever switch auto-scheduling on in my project plans!

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  • 2
    Dave Watler wrote on 7th Aug 2014

    Great post Johny - sure to spark some healthy debate. As a person who's career moved from Technical Authority, Project Management and then to Data Migration Practitioner, I can certainly see the many angles people will see this from.

    Two points come straight to mind.

    1. Immature approaches to planning in general - driven by the belief that you can plan any type of project down to the nth degree and so create the illusion of certainty and control. In many types of project, there is simply too much ambiguity and uncertainly to do this early on. This approach sadly pops up in too many projects / programmes and is not confined to DM. I would add that DM projects rarely if ever fall into the kind of project that can be planned to the nth degree right from the outset. To be able to do this you need to know exactly what and exactly how. This might apply to building a house (assumes it's a simple design and standard construction) but not to DM. To the uninitiated and from the outside, it might seem that for a DM one will know exactly what and exactly how, those with experience of couse know better.
    2. The fundamental nature of DM and having to manage through high levels of uncertainty and where the plan needs to be more of a ‘framework’ within which the specific tasks that need to be undertaken emerge as the work itself progresses. What the plan then needs to do is set out the map of 'how we get from here to there’ and the shape and size of the major elements of work & resource along the way and key decision points. Most importantly – when combined with other sources of information - it needs to inform those who are ultimately responsible for the success of the endeavour about the levels of risk & uncertainty. That way, they can make the hard decisions based on the best information available at any given point in time.

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  • 3
    Andrew Knight wrote on 8th Aug 2014

    I could not agree with you more Johny. Trying to plan a large project to the nth degree has always, in my experience, been a waste of time. By all means draw up some high-level timelines and think about resource conflicts and maybe even plan the next 1-3 months to some level of detail but going into detail beyond that is pointless. Almost all methodologies and tools allow for review and re-planning as an inherent aspect of project plansning so why spend excessive effort on planning activities 6-12 months down the line when there is every chance you'll need to rip it all up and do it again anyway.

    I try to do my best to explain to the business that the very nature (i.e. iterative discovery) of data quality analysis means that I will not know it is done until it is done so if they want data by such and such a date, that's fine, I'll give it to them but it may be far from the best quality data they could get.

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  • 4
    Johny Morris wrote on 11th Aug 2014

    Next blog in this mini summer series is up. Gives you my PDMv2 inspired approach to this. Love to hear more of your informed comments.

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About the author
John Morris has over 20 years experience in IT as a programmer, business analyst, project manager and data architect. He has spent the last 10 years working exclusively on data migration and system integration projects. John is the author of Practical Data Migration.

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