Wallpaper to suit your mood, clothes connected to the internet and work being fun - it's a vision of the future....

It is hard to imagine a work place without the internet, or people working and playing without a mobile phone (or Blackberry) or being able to access a seemingly limitless number of web pages.

Yet, only a few years ago, such things would have seemed exotic. The ability to lower costs by outsourcing and the emergence of the (almost) paperless office are only possible due to cheap information and communications technology, or ICT.

Is the revolutionary change largely over, or is there more to come? Although there are remarkable advances in the biosciences and nanotechnology, can we expect life for the average manager to change much in the next decade or two?

Trillions of computers

One area of computer science that will be helping us soon is ubiquitous computing, also known as the internet of things. The idea is that almost everything could become part of the ICT world, including documents, furniture, packaging, equipment, clothing, building blocks, vehicles, animals – and perhaps people too in time.

All of the above would contain silicon computing chips, affording them the ability to communicate (mostly wirelessly) and also to sense and react to the world.

As a result, the status of all important systems and people would be monitored in real time, supply chains would be optimised and disasters prevented during, for example, exceptional weather, or times of high security alerts. This is to an extent about 'Big Brother', but it's also about keeping people and things safe, and managing a more uncertain world.

It has been predicted that there may eventually be trillions of computers in the world - all interconnected - whereas today there are about 1 billion. Costs can be lowered if human error can be reduced; ubiComp can play an important part in helping to automate the optimal management of almost everything.

The early adopters of this technology are already using radio frequency identification (RFID) tags for many useful purposes. Satellite tracking is also an important part of this technology and will improve when the EU's Galileo system is fully operational in about five years.

It is likely to become the system that will be used for universal road tolling and also for the command and control of public transport and many safety and security systems. It will be a commercial service with (unlike the US military's GPS system) service quality guarantees.

Expecting work to be fun

Another set of factors to consider relate to the effects of greater wealth. The future will lead many people to have the resources to engage more with the arts and entertainment, which are becoming increasingly digital. They will spend more on health and wellbeing and will use technology to measure food consumed and energy expended.

They will generally embrace things which pander to emotions, rather than to our more basic human needs. It is no accident that teenagers spend so much money on their mobiles, since it is mostly about forms of social engagement i.e. emotional needs. This new generation is expecting work to be fun!

They are the future customers, employees and leaders, and they live mobile, digital and even virtual lives. Their social habits today will tend to determine the future of the workplace.

It will be a wireless working world with people carrying more and more media about their person and an online virtual world that is part of their workplace. One example would be a business meeting where both parties are virtual characters in an artificial virtual reality world. Perhaps some of what is being traded will be virtual too.

Artificial intelligence?

The web is changing and becoming more participatory (with blogs, wikis and so on). The next stage, known as the semantic web, will involve putting more intelligence into the raw information so that it can be meaningful to both humans and computers.

Perhaps, then, artificial intelligence (AI) will make some progress. Although the sci-fi movies have promised thinking computers, true machine consciousness remains elusive. Most AI research is more about reducing artificial stupidity by improving human computer interactions.

The most useful things in the pipeline will be better expert systems and natural voice interfaces. In the longer term, AI is a threat to white collar workers, since many knowledge management jobs will have the potential to be automated.

Although some human activities will be replaced, there will be an increase in jobs in the care economy, where people are doing things for people. Technology will be used to make people more effective, but would not replace them. For example, a robotic system is unlikely to replace personal relationships in a sales department or someone with a bedside manner in a health context.

Décor that changes to suit the mood

The capability of silicon chips will increase for at least another decade or two and there will also be improvements in magnetic materials and new materials, such as electronic plastics. It is likely that space lighting will become electronic and walls and ceilings will glow.

Some will even become electronic displays. Decorating will be unnecessary, as it will be possible to change décor automatically by the embedded computer.

As a person walks into a room, their 'digital bubble', which follows them about, will react with the room to cause it to display appropriate visualisations. Perhaps when rooms become VDUs, then teleconferencing will become more lifelike and popular.

Certainly, it may encourage people to travel less and work more flexibly, thereby saving on unnecessary travel and carbon emissions.

A need for simplicity

Technology does not exist in a vacuum. It follows the needs of its customers which, since the new millennium, include new challenges - challenges like the consequences of climate change and energy use, a rapidly aging population, an increased threat from terrorism, and perhaps an uneasy feeling that we need to focus on people more and technology less!

Technology will be there in far greater quantities, but it will become increasingly invisible - and simplicity in its use will become a major goal.

Robin Mannings, research foresight manager, BT Group Chief Technology Office.

June 2007